Monday, January 26, 2004

More poll numbers

There are six, by my count, tracking polls coming out of N.H. As of this morning, with results through Sunday, they show widely varying results:

Zogby/Reuters/MSNBC CNN/USAToday/Gallup Marist Inst. ARG Bos.Globe/WBZ-TV Suffolk U/WDHD-TV
Kerry 31 36 37 38 37 38
Dean 28 25 24 20 17 17
Clark 13 13 11 15 11 10
Edwards 12 10 11 16 12 9
Lieberman 9 10 9 5 7 5


Obviously, these six paint totally different pictures of the race. According to Zogby, Dean is only 3 back of Kerry. The Globe and Suffolk University have the gap at 20+, with the American Research Group close to that. From these results, I suspect the gap is about 10-15. Meanwhile, the commonality is that every poll puts Kerry first and Dean second. After that, it's a jumble. Lieberman is last (or tied) in each, Clark leads Edwards in 3, Edwards leads Clark in 2, and they are even in one. The biggest gap is 3 points. An average of the six looks like:

Kerry 36
Dean 22
Clark 12
Edwards 12
Lieberman 7.5

To compare, here's how it looked immediately following Iowa (from polls taken over 1/19-21):

Kerry 30
Dean 21
Clark 17
Edwards 9
Lieberman 6

Notice at least some positive movement for four of five over the past few days; Kerry has gained 6 points, Dean 1, Edwards 3, and Lieberman 1.5. Clark, on the other hand, has lost 5 points. If this trend holds up, he could finish last. I don't think he will; but I do think he will be 4th.

Finally, some really nice numbers, from Newsweek:

Are you satisfied with how things are going in the U.S.?
Yes 43
No 52

Approve of Bush's job performance
Approve 50
Disapprove 44

Want to see Bush reelected?
Yes 44
No 52

Who would you vote for?
Kerry 49 Bush 48 Bush 49 Bush 50
Bush 46 Clark 47 Edwards 46 Dean 45

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